This work compares cases of intelligence failure with cases of intelligence success, using in-depth case studies that help us understand for each case what intelligence was available, and what decision makers thought about at the time. It is difficult to conduct such a study because less information is available about intelligence success than there is about failure. This book posits that the types of intelligence garnered in the case of intelligence successes, is in fact significantly different from that available when intelligence fails.

Introduction: breaking the first law of intelligence failure -- Why does intelligence fail, and how can it succeed? -- Pearl Harbor: challenging the conventional wisdom -- The Battle of Midway: explaining intelligence success -- Testing the argument: classic cases of surprise attack -- The East Africa embassy bombings: disaster despite warning -- New York City: preventing a day of terror -- The 9/11 attacks: a new explanation -- Testing the argument: why do terrorist plots fail? -- Conclusion: preventing surprise attacks today -- Appendix: Unsuccessful plots and attacks against American targets, 1987-2012..