What is a predictable surprise? A preview -- pt. 1. Prototypes of predictable surprises. September 11 : the costs of ignoring a predictable surprise -- The collapse of Enron and the failure of auditor independence -- pt. 2. Why don't we act on what we know? Cognitive roots : the role of human biases -- Organizational roots : the role of institutional failures -- Political roots : the role of special-interest groups -- pt. 3. Preventing predictable surprises. Recognition : identifying emerging threats earlier -- Prioritization : focusing on the right problems -- Mobilization : building support for preventative action -- Future predictable surprises.