The crisis in the Taiwan Strait in 1995-96, and fresh tensions in mid-1999, made it clear that relations between China and Taiwan are not only about trade, investment and tourism, but also about war and peace. Taiwan's democratisation means that it will become increasingly difficult for the island's people to contemplate reunification with the mainland. Beijing will not tolerate Taiwanese independence, and the prospects of a coherent US policy concerning the dispute remain distant. Taiwan's progress towards a new identity and greater self-determination seems unstoppable; unless all the parties involved accept the existence of a new Taiwan, the risk of serious conflict will persist.

Adelphi Paper 331.

Introduction--Ch. 1 The History of the Relationship--Ch. 2 The Emergence of Taiwanese Democracy--Ch. 3 China and Changing Perceptions of Taiwan--Ch. 4 The 1195-96 Taiwan Crisis--Ch. 5 No Change, No Solution--Conclusion.