An irreverent look at how randomness influences our lives, and how our successes and failures are far more dependent on chance events than we recognize.

Prologue --ch. 1. Peering through the eyepiece of randomness : the hidden role of chance : when human beings can be outperformed by a rat -- ch. 2. The laws of truths and half-truths : the basic principles of probability and how they are abused : why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsy explanation -- ch. 3. Finding your way through a space of possibilities : a framework for thinking about random situations : from a gambler in plague-ridden Italy to Let's Make a Deal -- ch. 4. Tracking the pathways to success : how to count the number of ways in which events can happen, and why it matters : the mathematical meaning of expectation -- ch. 5. The dueling laws of large and small numbers : the extent to which probabilities are reflected in the results we observe : Zeno's paradox, the concept of limits, and beating the casino at roulette -- ch. 6. False positives and positive fallacies : how to adjust expectations in light of past events or new knowledge : mistakes in conditional probability from medical screening to the O.J. Simpson trial and the prosecutor's fallacy -- ch. 7. Measurement and the law of errors : the meaning and lack of meaning in measurements : the bell curve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the position of planets -- ch. 8. The order in chaos : how large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness : or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit -- ch. 9. Illusions of patterns and patterns of illusion : why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events : can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Street gurus be random? -- ch. 10. The drunkard's walk : why chance is a more fundamental conception than causality : Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory of life -- Acknowledgments -- Notes -- Index .