No defense planning can be effective without a rigorous assessment of the future international security environment. This fascinating new volume is designed to give readers a comprehensive view of the security threats America will face. The author analyzes the perspectives of federal agencies, military services, NGOs, public committees, think-tanks, and individual experts, to fashion a consensus assessment of the future of American national security in the years 2010-2035. His approach is completely unique in the highly individualistic field of futures research. Forty authoritative studies are evaluated for agreement or divergence, and are subjected to validation by almost 400 other expert sources. Dissenting sources are identified to ensure alternative viewpoints are heard. Both (or more) sides of the points of divergence are evaluated. Additionally, wild cards and unlikely events are detailed to determine the need for hedging strategies and to avoid the potential hazard of group-think among defense planners. The final product is a baseline planning scenario with potential alternatives. The book also discusses the varying techniques of futures analysis and the practical limits to the use of future research in policymaking. Used by planners in the Pentagon and foreign defense organizations, this highly readable book would interest any reader concerned about the future security of the United States and the world, and prove a valuable resource to all students of strategy and international relations.

"Futures of War is a continuation of a study initiated in 1999 whose results were published as All Possible Wars? Toward a consensus View of the Future Security Environment, 2001-2025 by National Defense University Press and subsequently re-released by other publishers. Although Futures of War borrows explanatory sections and structures from the earlier publication, it is largely a reinvestigation and rewrite rather than a revision. Whereas All Possible Wars? was a federally funded effort now in the public domain, Futures of War represents a personal quest."--Preface.

Preface -- Introduction -- Recognizing the Wooden Walls -- Estimates, Forecasts and Scenarios -- Using the Future: Practical and Historical Caveats -- Common Assessments/Consensus -- The Divided Oracle: Divergence and Contradictions -- Wild Cards -- Toward A "Consensus Scenario" -- Conclusions: Toward Effective Defense Planning -- Bibliography of Secondary Sources -- Endnotes -- Index