North Korea poses a key challenge to the global community of states. Sometimes viewed as primarily a nuclear or proliferation challenge, Pyongyang actually presents the United States and other countries with multiple problems. As the 2005 National Defense Strategy of the United States notes, these challenges include "traditional, irregular, and catastrophic." While each dimension of these threats capabilities are fairly clear and, with the exception of the third, readily documented, North Korea's intentions are a much more controversial subject upon which specialists reach widely disparate conclusions. In this monograph, Dr. Andrew Scobell examines the topic of Pyongyang's strategic intentions. He first identifies a broad spectrum of expert views and distills this wisdom into three "packages" of possible strategic intentions. He then sets out to test which package appears to reflect actual North Korean policy. While he opines that one is more likely than the others, he concludes that it is impossible to say with certainty which package most closely resembles reality. As a result, he suggests that further probing of Pyongyang's intentions is advisable.

"July 2005"--T.p. "Demystifying North Korea"--P. [1] of cover. "July 2005." "First in series" -- Cover.

Approach / The spectrum of expert views of North Korea's intentions. Selig Harrison: regime is moderating -- David Kang: regime will moderate -- Bruce Cumings: regime likely to moderate -- Victor Cha: regime might moderate -- Kongdan Oh/Ralph Hassig: regime unlikely to moderate -- Stephen Bradner: Regime will not moderate -- Observations and analysis / Strategic intentions. Modest/security -- Ambitious/benevolent -- Ambitious/malevolent / Propaganda, policy, and planning. Propaganda -- Policy -- Planning / Conclusions. Modest security: wishful thinking? -- Ambitious benevolence: cautious optimism? -- Ambitious malevolence: reluctant pessimism.