News that the failed Christmas Day attack on a U.S. passenger jet was tied to al-Qaeda elements in Yemen prompted questions of whether the fractious Arab state might give rise to a Taliban-style regime. For its part, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has stated its intent to achieve "our great Islamic project: establishing an Islamic Caliphate" but it is vulnerable to the threat that Yemen's tribes may ultimately find its presence a liability. Yemen is a relatively young and developing state in which the rules of political power remain under negotiation. Western policy makers must consider the intricacies of the Republic's domestic politics before acting. While overt military intervention is likely to further entrench al-Qaeda in the country, greatly increasing development aid also risks reinforcing a regime that is poorly equipped and poorly motivated to distribute the aid effectively among its people. Western chances of encouraging a more inclusive political system are questionable. In the long term, only a fundamental domestic restructuring of the political system to become much more inclusive will lead to stability.

"March 2010"--T.p.

Summary -- What comes next? -- Patrons to the tribe -- Clients of the tribe -- Partners with the tribe -- Violence and blood revenge -- Ideology -- Addressing the problem.