As the United States continues to draw down its forces and prepares to eventually end its substantial military involvement in Iraq, it must recognize that this drawdown will affect vulnerable and at-risk populations, some of whom have depended on U.S. forces for their security over the last six years. How vulnerable groups are affected by the U.S. drawdown has significant implications for the evolution of Iraq and U.S. policy interests in Iraq and the Middle East more broadly. Oliker, Grant, and Kaye assess the risks and implications of drawdown and withdrawal for some of the Iraqis in greatest danger: (1) populations whose vulnerability to violence will increase specifically because of the U.S. drawdown and (2) Iraq's displaced population, both within Iraq and in neighboring states. The authors conclude with recommendations for U.S. policymakers for mitigating the problems they anticipate.

"Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense"--T.p.

Introduction / Vulnerable populations. Risks and implications of drawdown -- Current policy responses -- U.S.-affiliated Iraqis -- Other groups at risk / Displacement and U.S. drawdown and withdrawal. Risks and implications of drawdown -- Violence -- Underdevelopment and long-term insecurity in Iraq / Conclusions: mitigating risks and recommendations for U.S. government action. Lowering the risk of violence -- Making resettlement outside of Iraq viable for those who need it -- Enabling those in immediate danger to reach safety -- Treating displacement and its effects as a regional issue -- Supporting sustainable and effective development.