The report tested the assertion that U.S. security cooperation (SC) can help reduce fragility in partner states. The test used statistical analysis to assess SC data and state fragility scores for 107 countries in 1991-2008. After controlling for a variety of factors, the main finding was that provision of SC by the United States and a reduction in partner state fragility were correlated. The strength of correlation did not increase proportionally with additional funding; most of the effect was concentrated at the low end of SC funding. In addition, the correlation depended on recipient country characteristics. Correlation was stronger in more democratic states and in states with stronger institutions. In especially fragile states, there was only a weak or no correlation of SC with fragility decrease. Of the types of SC provided, the correlation was strongest with education-focused SC. Foreign Military Financing, a type of SC, did not correlate with reductions in fragility.

Introduction. The context -- Terminology -- Objectives and organization / Security cooperation, U.S. strategy, and the concept of "prevention". National security documents -- Army doctrine -- The preventive hypothesis -- Related research / Statistical approach to assessing the preventive hypothesis. Periods included in our analyses -- Countries included in our analyses -- Statistical estimation technique -- Country characteristics that may affect state fragility -- State fragility -- Security cooperation / Assessing the preventive hypothesis. SC is correlated with improvements in countries' stability -- Correlation between SC and improvements in countries' stability is condition on partner country characteristics -- Correlation between SC and improvements in countries' stability is condition on type of SC / Findings from case studies. Case study selection and format -- Case study summaries -- Comparing case study data -- General impressions from the case studies / Findings and implications. Findings -- Implications / Appendix A: Army security cooperation programs -- Appendix B: sensitivity analyses.