This dissertation examines the risk of U.S.-China conflict based on a variety of theoretical works on conflict, applied to the U.S.-China relationship. Following this examination, and finding that the U.S.-China relationship does include elements of risk, the dissertation examines the implications of anti-access weapons on USAF sortie generation. The dissertation develops a simple sortie-generation model and air combat framework, using open-source data to estimate the forces that the USAF and the PLAAF can bring to bear, and predicts the results of air combat between two forces of dissimilar performance and quantity. Finally the dissertation examines options for increasing USAF performance in the face of anti-access weapons, which includes a methodology to assess the effectiveness of strike employed to achieve air superiority.

Introduction -- Political background: prospects for U.S.-China conflict -- Taiwan operational context -- Theater access challenges -- Sortie generation and implications -- Discussion of alternatives -- Conclusions -- Appendix A: USAF sortie generation model -- Appendix B: queuing considerations -- Appendix C: PLAAF/PLANAF flanker sortie generation calculations -- Appendix D: air combat effectiveness framework -- Appendix E: effectiveness of standoff weapons against PLA airbase infrastructure.