Holistic integrative analysis of international change : a commentary on teaching emergent futures
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Holistic integrative analysis of international change : a commentary on teaching emergent futures
-- Commentary on teaching emergent futures
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Discusses the challenges that the United States faces in dealing with multiple-agent dynamic complex systems problems, and producing analysts capable of conducting emerging international futures forecasting. The U.S. effort toward producing integrated security solutions, including integrated and holistic assessments of international environments and thus of emerging futures forecasting, rests upon having effective basic and intermediary holistic education and training programs that we do not now have. The author asserts that all major classic learning and analysis traditions have enfolded a holistic complex systems view of human affairs and of emerging trends forecasting involving them, wherein broad learning was a preamble to success. This is the necessary teaching and learning path for producing analysts capable of doing emerging international future's forecasting. The author highlights the following advanced analytical concepts that need to be taught to and used by future analysts: "Layering the Onion", Path Development and Harmonics, Streaming and Emergence, Perturbations and Multi Systems Bias Responses.
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