U.S. withdrawal from Iraq could affect Iraq's internal security and stability, which could in turn affect U.S. strategic interests and the safety of U.S. troops and civilians in Iraq. U.S. policy-makers need a dynamic analytic framework with which to examine the shifting motivations and capabilities of the factors that affect Iraq's security. The framework recognizes dangers from extremists, mainstream political actors, and the politicization of the security forces. It asserts that security in Iraq depends on the major political actors using the political process instead of violence to achieve their goals, and professional, apolitical security forces. Extremist violence, while inevitable, cannot by itself threaten the state. To help achieve U.S. goals in Iraq, long-term U.S.-Iraq military cooperation should have three missions: building security force capability, enhancing its professional character, and building confidence between Iraqi state and Kurdish regional forces. Fulfilling these three missions will require well-prepared and well-placed, relatively senior professionals at every level; development of long-term relationships with Iraqi counterparts; and, possibly, a newly agreed mandate. With such efforts, the United States should be able to contribute to continued strengthening of the internal security and stability of Iraq even as it withdraws its forces.

"Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense"--T.p.

Introduction / Political and security conditions of U.S. withdrawal. Background -- Conceptualizing politics and security in Iraq -- Assessing the dangers -- Extremist violence -- Mainstream armed opposition -- Concentration and abuse of power by the GoI and the ISF -- Capabilities and calculations of the main actors -- Threat interactions -- Direct threats to U.S. personnel -- Extremists -- Main opposition groups -- Summary of potential threats to U.S. forces and other personnel -- Grounding political dangers in economic realities -- Summarizing dangers and implications for U.S. withdrawal / Future U.S. security responsibilities in Iraq. Security functions that must transcend U.S. force withdrawal -- Conclusions and recommendations.