The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) set out to develop ways to predict what determines the targets of suicide attacks. While the ultimate goal is to create a list of areas at risk for the U.S. environment, the first phase of development employed a data set from Israel. Initially, NRL focused on spatial attributes, creating its own risk index, but realized that this focus on the where ignored the broader social context, the why. The lab asked RAND to test, as a proof of principle, the ability of sociocultural, political, economic, and demographic factors to enhance the predictive ability of NRL's methodology. Again using Israel as a sample, RAND created a database that coded for these factors, then conducted both quantitative and qualitative analyses with an eye to determining what puts a given area at greater risk. The quantitative analysis established that these factors are related to the odds of attack within specific neighborhoods and that the relationships held even when controlling for geospatial factors, so they seem to confer risk for reasons beyond their association with geospatial features of neighborhoods. The specifics of the research are limited to the preferences of Palestinian suicide bombers in Israel; however, the methods used to assess target preferences in Israel could be transferred to the United States or other countries. Any results, if proven to be robust, could be used to develop recommendations for heightened public awareness in certain areas.

"Sponsored by the Naval Research Laboratory"--T.p.

Introduction and overview. Background -- About this report / Quantitative data and methods. Quantitative data -- Principal component analysis and logistic regression -- Classification and regression trees -- Sociocultural precipitants analysis -- Results of quantitative data analysis -- Summing up / Qualitative analysis. Methodology -- Hypotheses driving the use of the methodology -- Assumptions in using the methodology -- Results of qualitative data analysis / Conclusions and recommendations. Conclusions from quantitative data analysis -- Conclusions from qualitative data analysis -- Recommendations for further research / Appendix A: sociocultural precipitant database -- Appendix B: logistic regression output.