Taiwan’s position looks increasingly precarious, and tensions threaten to grow into a major strategic crisis. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made reunification with Taiwan a central pillar of his vision for China, and has ramped up diplomatic and economic pressure on Taiwan. Its inhabitants are increasingly estranged from the mainland, and Tsai Ing-wen’s administration refuses to conduct relations with China on Beijing’s terms. Taiwan could take on renewed strategic significance amid the backdrop of the deepening rivalry between China and the United States, and find itself at the centre of a Cold War-style superpower confrontation.

The view from Taipei --The view from Beijing -- The view from Washington -- Under pressure -- The cross-strait balance -- The US-China balance -- An expanding toolbox -- Danger of escalation -- Red lines -- Inadvertent escalation -- A new cold war? -- Military-technical incentives -- Dangers of complacency -- Diplomatic avenues -- Enhanced deterrence -- Catastrophic conflict -- The need for crisis management -- The next stage.