In 2014, the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at National Defense University published a paper on the future of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). It projected WMD-relevant geopolitical and technological trends and made judgments as to how those trends would shape the nature and role of WMD in 2030 … Significant geopolitical and technological developments bearing on the future of WMD that have emerged since the 2014 paper or were largely not addressed in that study. This paper addresses six baskets of such developments. They include 1 ) shifting roles among the great powers; 2) new pressures on arms control and nonproliferation regimes; 3 ) more rules for chemical and biological weapons; 4 ) expanding use of US financial sanctions as an instrument of policy; 5 ) new types of delivery vehicles and more scope to develop and deploy them; And 6 ) other emerging or disruptive technologies with WMD relevance Including artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum systems, and additive manufacturing. This paper was finalized in early November 2020 so does not reflect later events like the 2020 U.S. presidential election result. -- From the Executive summary (page 5)

Also available online : Address at time of PURL creation : https://ni-u.edu/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Future_of_WMD_Final.pdf (Viewed 9 November 2023) "February 2021."

Shifting roles at the top -- Regimes under pressure. Nuclear -- Nuclear nonproliferation -- Regimes under pressure. Chemical and biological. Chemical threats -- Biological threats -- Expanding use of financial sanctions -- New delivery vehicles -- Other emerging or disruptive technologies -- Conclusion.