The South China Sea (SCS) is a resource-rich strategic waterway that has steadily grown in global significance. China and its Southeast Asian neighbors have a long, complicated history of overlapping and competing claims of territorial sovereignty in the SCS. The United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) delineates maritime boundaries and the rights afforded to nations within those boundaries. Most nations in the region accept UNCLOS as an authoritative standard while China continues to reference its historical claims, creating an enduring tension that has manifested in China's use of military coercion against Vietnam and the Philippines. This regional dispute has garnered world-wide attention due to the SCS's strategic significance and the aggressive means by which China has attempted to assert control in the region. The US Navy routinely executes freedom of navigation operations to challenge excessive maritime claims based on established UNCLOS standards. China views these operations as provocative, and as an excuse for the United States to involve itself in the regional disputes. China's displeasure with US presence in the SCS has led to numerous incidents between the People's Liberation Army Navy and US Navy warships, including antagonistic maneuvers at dangerously close distances. This monograph analyzes two scenarios in the SCS that could potentially lead to conflict between the United States and China. First, the enduring disputes between China and its neighbors could escalate to the point where the United States gets drawn into the conflict as a third party on behalf of one or multiple Southeast Asian nations. Secondly, a direct conflict between China and the United States could result from China's discontentment with the United States' execution of freedom of navigation operations in the SCS. An analysis of US and Chinese writings on escalation theory provides a useful framework for explaining how the ongoing disputes in the SCS could lead to an escalation into conflict. Applying escalation theory supports the argument that the totality of the situation in the SCS is more escalatory than either the United States or China fully appreciates, and that it will continue to intensify over time, carrying with it an ever-increasing risk of military confrontation.

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