This monograph argues current American security assistance and security cooperation activities are not effective at countering growing Chinese influence in Indonesia. The geostrategic importance of Indonesia is an integral part of the current Sino-American tensions. Strained Sino-American relations caused each country to implement different strategies over the last decade to win Indonesia's trust: military assistance from the United States and economic incentives from China. Each strategy independently benefits Indonesia. Additionally, Indonesia cannot predict which country will serve as the long-term regional leader in Southeast Asia. This uncertainty resulted in Indonesia adopting its current strategy of hedging, which is common among nations in Southeast Asia. This study analyzes historical and modern American military and Chinese economic interventions in Indonesia. Combining this with analysis of future events, such as the 2019 Indonesian presidential election, provides a unique strategic context. American and Chinese actions and policies will be analyzed through modern international relations theory. This monograph concludes by analyzing the expected return on investment of US security assistance and security cooperation in Indonesia and how to improve it in the future.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)