The world is a perilous place. The twentieth century was arguably the most destructive epoch in human history and the twenty-first is already proving to be far from benign. In such an environment, states have every incentive to prepare themselves against security threats. However, the complexity of the world and the malignant nature of cognitive blindness both conspire to ensure that a nation will eventually face an unanticipated crisis. Some challenges will be minor, while others have the potential to be fatal. The purpose of this monograph is to explore airpower's response to fundamental surprise. Using John Boyd's decision loop as a lens, the following chapters construct a case for airpower's efficacy in surprising situations, and then utilize the 1973 Yom Kippur War to test its application. This is not to say that airpower is a panacea, or that it is solely useful in situations of national astonishment. However, this project postulates that airpower has unique capabilities especially suited for surprising situations. In an uncertain world, this can mean the difference between survival and destruction.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)