While the Spratly Islands are just a group of small islets, rocks, and reefs in the South China Sea, the implications of their control can have a major impact in the international environment. This monograph analyzes, through qualitative research, the impact on the hegemony of the United States if China were able to control the Spratly Islands and how the United States can mitigate those impacts. Two case studies analyze examples of how material support to a third party can gain a position of relative advantage over a competing state. These two case studies are: (1) French support of the colonists in the American Revolution; and (2) Soviet support of the North Koreans and Chinese in the Korean War. The case studies provide a model that, when viewed through the lens of John Mearsheimer's theory of offensive realism, can be applied to potential courses of action for the United States to effectively deal with a rising China. Through the use of the case studies and analysis of states that can be used to balance China, India is suggested to provide a state that the United States can support to balance China. While there are numerous avenues that the United States can approach, through India, to balance China and limit their power projection capabilities, India remains a self-serving state in an anarchic international environment. However, the United States can use the techniques described herein to positively affect the Phase 0, shaping operations within the Pacific theater to ensure the United States can maintain a position of relative advantage in relation to China.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)