This study examines the potential for international crisis or conflict in the Arctic region in the near future due to geographic changes resulting from climate change. The study further examines the operational challenges by state and non-state actors increasing their military and commercial activity in the Arctic region. This study scrutinizes variables, driving factors and leading indicators related to shaping the near future of the Arctic region with the foreign policy approaches of relevant actors. Given the changes in geography from climate change, will the future of the Arctic region be the next global hotspot of conflict, or a tranquil region of international law and cooperation? This study used methods of scenario planning to determine the potential for near future crisis or conflict in the Arctic region. Four scenarios were derived after examining the climate change impacts to the region and strategic context of the many interested state actors. The scenarios were in the spectrum of low state-actor interest and activity in a status quo outcome, to a "Great Game" outcome of high interest and activity with the higher potential for crisis or conflict. In all four scenarios, including crisis from state-actor competition, US engagement, relevancy of international organizations, and incentives to disaffected actors, can serve to reduce tension and mitigate potential for conflict.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)