Climate change and global warming could open up the Arctic to unprecedented energy and resource development and maritime traffic as temperatures rise and the ice recedes. Each of the Arctic nations has made domestic and foreign policy statements on the Arctic, with each stating that they are prepared to do what is necessary to defend their interests in the region. The Arctic Council is instrumental in promoting dialogue and cooperation in the region and all of the Arctic nations have agreed to manage their differences under a spirit of cooperation. If the security situation in the region should deteriorate, however, can Canada act unilaterally to protect its sovereignty in the region? This paper examines current Canadian national security and defense strategy for the Arctic and uses scenario planning as a tool to evaluate the current strategy. Three examples of scenario planning for the Arctic exist and are evaluated, but found to be lacking in their ability to comprehensively address the security question under study. Four new scenarios are developed and examined to further illustrate the security aspect of four plausible futures based on the critical uncertainties of Arctic cooperation and resource development. Considering current and planned capabilities, it was found that with the exception of inter-state armed conflict in the region, the Government of Canada and the Canadian Forces together with other government agencies, will more than likely be able to deal with an unconventional or transnational threat in the Arctic. The delivery of Arctic surveillance capabilities such as RADARSAT are critical to Canada's ability to monitor its vast Northern territories and respond to any mence to its sovereignty. Canada's participation in NATO and NORAD and its relationship with the U.S. allows it to accept considerable risk in the region regarding inter-state conflict. To mitigate this risk and balance tension with Russia, Canada's Arctic foreign policy rightfully emphasizes international cooperation through the Arctic Council and has as its first priority, the resolution of Arctic boundary disputes as quickly and peacefully as possible.

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