The paper examines the individual commander's decision making process to determine the optimal decision making system for military problem-solving under time constraints. This study first examines implications of decision making theories on the military decision making process. Next, the paper examines historical development and current doctrinal procedures as outlined in FM 101-5, Staff Organization and Operations. Three problem-solving systems are then analyzed under varying time constraints using four criterion: flexibility, adaptability, critical event determination, and battlefield operating systems (BOS) synchronization. The three approaches are then compared to determine the optimal problem-solving system for use under time constraints. Several conclusions are drawn from this research. First, FM 101-5 leaves an ambiguous impression of how the decision making process should operate under time constraints. The commander needs a bag of problem-solving methods that work under varying time constraints, not just one method that only works well without time constraints. The US Army problem-solving system should be explicitly spelled out so that commanders know what method to use under what conditions. FM 101-5 should state, for example, under optimal time conditions and light time constraints use forced multiple Course of Action (COA) analysis of three enemy and three friendly COAs. Under moderate time constraints use forced concurrent analysis of at least two enemy and two friendly COAs. Finally, under severe time constraints, use sequential analysis of one enemy and one friendly COA. These methods should also be related to the personality and expertise of the commander, the staff, and the unit. The commander should also use techniques that produce both acceptable and optimal COAs. Additionally, if the commander gets in the habit of continuously analyzing his situation, he will be able to react more quickly to new situations. The paper also contains some other conclusions and implications. The 71 series FMs and BOS umbrella FMs need to be linked in a standardized manner to the commander's estimate. The "predictive" flavor in intelligence manuals needs to be fixed. Commander training in the areas of problem recognition, intent development, time-space relationships, and COA analysis could reduce the time required for decision making. Computer decision aids could also be helpful tools. Finally, staff SOPs for problem-solving could reduce the time required to implement the decision making process.

ADA 225425 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)