Since September 11, democracy has come to dominate the discourse as authoritarian Middle East regimes, even if they are friendly to Western interests, are perceived to be at the root of the existing international state of insecurity. Promoting democracy has been placed at the forefront of Western foreign policies and the debate over which approach to take is very tense. This monograph examines whether democracy is feasible in the Middle East and explores possible recommendations in terms of support to the democratization process in the region. First, in order to study this question, the difficulty in establishing a universal concept of democracy is illustrated through the examination of different definitions by various scholars. To add to the complexity, the Western and Middle Eastern views of democracy are different in the sense that the West has been strongly influenced by the work of its philosophers who came to the conclusion within their cultural context that democracy must be secular. The Islamic world in contrast, never came to this conclusion; in the end, it seems that whether democracy is or is not compatible with Islamic thinking remains strictly theoretical. The experience of Muslims with democracy would be more related to their environment. Considering that the limited development of democracy in the Middle East can compare with other developing countries such as in Africa and that some Muslim countries in Asia have achieved democracy, we have to look at other factors that hinder the development of democracy that are common to other states. Factors such as modernization, rentier state status, stagnant economies, colonization, the Arab-Israeli conflict and Cold War rivalries constitute internal and external factors affecting successful democratic processes. The interconnections between these factors inhibit the establishment and maintenance of democracy in the Middle East as both sets of variables feed off each other. Socio-economic conditions, the choice of institutional design and civic cultures are often cited as necessary prerequisites for democracy. However, it was found that the discussions on this subject were inconclusive as democracy sometimes survives when few of these conditions are fulfilled and it sometimes fails in countries where many of the preconditions are met. Based on the evidence and analysis presented in this study, seven guiding principles to support democratization in the Middle East were made: manage the expectations and adapt the intervention, rebalance the U.S. foreign policy towards Israel, focus on economic reforms, engage in a dialogue with the Islamic parties, expect a long term commitment, use the position of strength cautiously and design a complementary U.S.-European approach. Finally, the expectation that democracy could sweep through the Middle East quickly is not supported by the analysis conducted in this paper nor is the contention that the Middle East is ill suited for democracy. It is certainly possible that democratic change will spread in the region over the next twenty years but at the same time there is no guarantee that it will happen everywhere. Democracy promotion is difficult in the Middle East due to a combination of factors that varies from country to country. Considering the complexity of the situation, outside actors will not be the primary determinants of change but they can make positive contributions. They will be able to do so only if they can come up with measures that are adapted to the realities of the problems and challenges of particular countries rather than imposing a template approach to all.

ADA 470464 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)