This monograph analyzes recent (post-1980) suicide bombings and determines the probability of the same in the Continental United States (CONUS). Analysis includes a brief history of modern suicide bombing and an examination of the strategic, tactical, social and individual logic of suicide bombing. It addresses the probable characteristics of suicide bombings against the U.S., both within CONUS and abroad. The monograph also makes recommendations about what can be done to mitigate future bombings. Finally, Appendix A lists 2,202 suicide bombings since 1980, and as of early 2007 is the best available open source suicide bombing database in the world. Suicide attackers have been a part of warfare for over two millennia, but the coupling of suicide attackers and explosives greatly increased the importance and effectiveness of this tactic in the 20th century. The modern phenomenon of suicide bombing had its genesis in the Iran-Iraq War from 1980-88. Ayatollah Khomeini used his influence to motivate young Iranians to commit suicide attacks, but he was successful in framing such attacks as martyrdom operations. Concurrent with the Iran-Iraq War, Iran influenced the development of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah tried suicide bombing on somewhat of a trial basis against the U.S. and France, and then later against Israel. Unfortunately, Hezbollah achieved both strategic and tactical success and proved the efficacy of suicide bombing. Not surprisingly, other groups such as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), the Palestinians and the People's Liberation Army of Kurdistan (PKK) started employing suicide bombers in the 1980s and 1990s. As suicide bombing spread geographically and ideologically, it also increased in sophistication. It advanced from being a simple bomb delivered by truck, to include suicide vests, boat bombs, and eventually airplanes. Target sets similarly expanded. Once the taboo against suicide was overcome, previous distinctions among civilian non-combatants and uniformed military members became meaningless. The vast majority of suicide bombings (98%) are part of an organized campaign. Thus, there is a logic for the individuals blowing themselves up, since they believe that they are acting for the common good. The scale of campaigns has also steadily increased. While Hezbollah mounted some 50 attacks in Lebanon over years, suicide bombers in Iraq commonly conduct 50 attacks in a single month. Another trait that holds constant regardless of religion, geography or nature of the conflict is that the side employing suicide bombers is always the weaker side. Given the U.S. conventional military dominance for the foreseeable future, suicide bombing will be a staple tactic of its opponents. For the most part, suicide bombings will be confined to those periods when the U.S. is actively militarily intervening overseas. The only group that conducts suicide bombings against the U.S. outside of active war zones is Al-Qaida. Its methodology has morphed over time from being a traditional terrorist organization that conducted attacks with its own operatives, to being a "venture capitalist" that sponsored and financed others, to its present form of being a viral marketer. Al-Qaida still plans and attempts its own attacks, and these Al-Qaida-sponsored attacks tend to be large-scale, involve multiple, simultaneous attackers, and require extensive planning and coordination. Al-Qaida-inspired attacks, however, usually feature first or second-generation attackers operating within their parent country, are often self-financed, and use person-borne devices with locally procured explosives. There will still be Al-Qaida-sponsored suicide bombings every few years, but the more likely and numerous suicide bombings in CONUS will be Al-Qaida-inspired.

ADA 470697 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)