This monograph finds that the US Army's decision making process taught in its schools and branch courses relies too heavily on an iterative analytical method called the Deliberate Decision Making Process or DDMP. Within this process there exists a "Catch-22" in which an operations planner desires an enemy course of action (COA) prediction before developing a friendly COA. He usually receives this from an intelligence planner. Likewise, the intelligence planner desires a friendly COA from which to base a prediction of enemy intentions. Which comes first? There is no standardized method units use to answer this. The DDMP is sequential and iterative by nature. It takes time and often bases friendly plans on a predicted enemy COA (most dangerous or most likely) rather than on merely a determination of enemy capabilities. In a time constrained environment, basing a plan on predicted enemy intentions is risky. This monograph examines interview responses of 32 division and corps level planners. It determined that most planning is time constrained and that divisional planning is significantly more time constrained than corps level. The decision making process used at division level is a combination of analytical and recognitional decision making known as the Combat Decision Making Process or CDMP. It involves recognizing patterns of enemy action based on enemy capability not intentions. It maximizes flexibility, officer experience and is not formally taught at a majority of Army schools. Finally, the monograph provides some insight into how the Army might streamline the CDMP coupled with a corresponding de-emphasis of enemy COA prediction. It recommends minor staff restructuring and an increased emphasis in schools to advance recognitional decision making experience.

ADA 300713 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)