This monograph examines the question of what will happen on the Korean peninsula if North Korea collapses without a fight. In 1996 the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) appears to be on the verge of disintegration due in large part to Kim II Sung's philosophy of 'juche' or self-reliance (which is nothing more than the political, economic, and social isolation of North Korea), the disastrous flooding of 1995 resulting in widespread famine, and disproportionate military spending at the expense of economic development and social welfare. The collapse of the DPRK will mark the end of the Korean War and require that the 'victors' conduct post-conflict operations for which they are responsible. Four possible scenarios for collapse are advanced; two 'soft landing' and two 'hard landing.' The 'soft landing' scenarios result in gradual reunification in accordance with the Republic of Korea's three phase reunification plan. The 'hard landing' scenarios cause tremendous suffering, increased instability, and require intervention in order to stabilize the peninsula and prevent spillover both to the north and south as well as massive migration of the north's population. In order to determine what the US should do as well as what it can do, the strategic interests, objectives, and concerns of China, Russia, Japan, the ROK, and the US are analyzed. The common theme among all is the desire to benefit economically from a stable peninsula and the Tumen River region could become the economic center of gravity for Northeast Asia and become the carrot that could attract cooperation among all the powers of the region and the US. Finally, the monograph concludes by presenting the four mission essential tasks which must be accomplished following DPRK collapse: (1) establishment of security and stability; (2) humanitarian relief operations; (3) security of nuclear research, production, storage, and delivery facilities; (4) disarming, demobilizing, and resettling the DPRK military. In order to accomplish those tasks the UN Security Council should recognize its responsibilities for conducting post-conflict operations to restore order in the north, establish a mandate for such operations, and build a coalition among the Northeast Asian powers and the US to conduct combined operations under the command of the current UN Command.

ADA 314274 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)