The Chinese civil war ended in 1949 and the defeated Nationalist forces fled to Taiwan to escape the Communist victors. Since then, the Communist leadership of Mainland China has wanted to regain control of the island of Taiwan, while those who fled to Taiwan have wanted independence. Since 1949 China has refused to recognize Taiwan as independent and has consistently espoused reunification. Taiwan, while continuing to recognize themselves as Chinese, also want reunification, but refuse to do so until China reforms its political ideology. As a result, great tension has persisted between both parties for the past 51 years but without much positive action to alleviate it. While hostilities remain, inaction has been the status quo for the simple reason that China has not been able to do anything about it. Today, although China is no longer allied with the former Soviet Union, it has moved nearly into the modern era militarily with its assistance. Opposing the Russian assistance, the U.S. has consistently supported Taiwan, and subsequently, Taiwan is also a regionally modern military power. The issue of military modernization has never been a significant issue in the past because China posed no threat to Taiwan regarding unification, but that situation is changing. As China develops militarily, it increases its ability to force Taiwan to reunite. Taiwan, not to be coerced, understands the emerging threat and continues to modernize itself militarily to counter the Chinese threat. This monograph examines the ability of the People's Republic of China to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan as well as the ability of the Republic of China to defend itself from invasion. This study examines the historical background of the conflict, the National Security and Military Strategies and the economies of each state in order to illustrate national philosophies, attitudes and relations to each other. Following the background material, each branch of the armed forces of each nation is studied, as well as some non-conventional and joint capabilities to facilitate and overall comparison of the armed forces. Finally, a study of the terrain of Taiwan is conducted to understand the options for invasion and the influence of terrain on invasion scenarios. This study concludes that the People's Republic of China does not currently have sufficient military capability to successfully invade Taiwan.

ADA 381809 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)