Based upon observations from the Combat Training Centers, military staffs are ineffective at tactical war gaming and thus the war game rarely contributes to effective decision-making. While war gaming is generally recognized as a weakness among many military staffs, many have concluded that the problems with the tactical war game reside in the participants lack of training or not understanding planning doctrine. This monograph does not accept this conclusion and explores, instead, the system itself. The purpose of this monograph is to find flaws not only in the 8-Step War Game Model but in the MDMP itself that contribute to ineffective war gaming. Additionally, this monograph recommends changes to the MDMP and war gaming that will make it a better tool that takes advantages of how expert decision makers think and plan. This monograph establishes that the war game and to a certain extent, the MDMP, are ineffective because their focus reflects a linear approach to decision making that attempts to remove uncertainty from planning by developing multiple courses of actions (COAs), and then selecting the best COA based upon established criteria. The opposite to a linear approach to decision making, is a non-linear approach that accepts battlefield uncertainty as a constant and focuses on managing uncertainty, rather than eliminating it. This monograph then argues that the true power of war gaming comes from its potential as a non-linear decision making tool. Next, this monograph demonstrates that the tactical war game never realizes its potential because of the tension that is created from trying to war game multiple COAs. Additionally, this linear approach is counterproductive to group decision-making because it encourages groupthink, a common pitfall of group decision-making. In order to explore alternatives or modifications to the MDMP or the 8-Step War Game Model, this monograph examines the qualities that define expert decision-making as well as the strengths and weaknesses of a non-linear decision-making methodology, naturalistic decision-making theory. The goal will be to develop a process that aims at tapping into the qualities that define expert decision-making by taking advantage of the natural cognitive process that underlies planning and decision-making. This monograph concludes by introducing a naturalistic decision-making theory, Recognition/Metacognition Theory, as a framework to make changes to the MDMP and the 8-Step War Game Model to encourage critical thinking and make not only war gaming, but the entire MDMP more effective at managing battlefield uncertainty.

ADA 403831 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)