This monograph examines the relationship between battlefield synchronization and decision-making. Beginning with a review of rational analytical decision theory and Gary Klein's recognition primed decision theory, the monograph reviews the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) to determine if the MDMP and its resultant products are sufficient to achieve and maintain synchronization of the effects of distributed operations. In addition to the detailed review of the MDMP, this monograph considers the relationship between complexity, uncertainty, and synchronization. Klein's recognition primed decision-making (RPD) theory, based on extensive study of fire fighters, emergency medical service workers, and military commanders describes the intuitive manner which experienced people most frequently use to solve problems. RPD is a rapid process that foregoes extensive analysis to generate feasible solutions. When employing RPD techniques, decision-makers filter environmental cues and create a solution hypothesis using an analogy or a metaphor. This hypothesis is then tested using mental simulation to ensure it is acceptable. RPD is very effective when the decision-maker has substantial expertise in solving the type of problem at hand, however it is adversely affected by uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity. RPD seeks satisfactory, rather than optimal, solutions. Rational analysis is a common alternative to RPD, seeking optimal solutions through deliberate, detailed analysis. Rational analysis provides the theoretical underpinnings of the MDMP. Rational analysis is a linear procedures used to solve complex, interdisciplinary problems that exceed the expertise of any single decisionmaker. Rational analysis is a time consuming process because of the sequential nature of analysis and decision. Because it is a group process it is vulnerable to errors of miscommunication and misperception. However, rational analysis and RPD are complementary approaches to problem solving because rational analysis can generate synthetic experience to support RPD based decisions. The MDMP is doctrinally describes as a rational analysis process. MDMP is a time consuming, sequential process that generates solutions through strict adherence to procedure. MDMP does not support effectively synchronization of effects because its linear, sequential approach inhibits a holistic solution to problem solving. Further, the products generated during the MDMP do not adequately address the identification of the decisive point and supporting the adjustment decisions required to maintain synchronization in the dynamic environment of combat. processes. It establishes that synchronization must be injected into MDMP during mission analysis, rather than during course of action analysis. It recommends that modifications to the MDMP to emphasize decision support products and changing the MDMP from a strictly linear, sequential model to a feedback based iterative procedure.

ADA 400754 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)