The purpose of this research was to examine objective conditions in two Sub-Saharan African countries to determine if there are recurring circumstances which cause the indigenous military to seize power or factors that preclude military intervention. It is felt that an understanding of these factors will permit a military or civilian analysis to develop appropriate policies for the United States to follow toward the independent countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. A historical survey was conducted to determine if there were identifiable factors in the histories of Nigeria and Tanzania that either caused or precluded military intervention. The basic hypothesis, which was derived from those formerly postulated by Professor Claude E. Welch, Jr., is that military intervention in African politics is most likely when: the prestige of the major political parties wanes coupled with disharmony among leading politicians; there is little likelihood of external intervention and countries nearby have suffered military intervention; the society is not integrated and suffers from declining economic conditions; government corruption and inefficiency are rampant; and the army feels it has a political role. The Nigerian case tended to validate this hypothesis. Conditions within the country deteriorated to such an extent that military intervention was inevitable. Tanzania also tended to validate the basic hypothesis in that the conditions suffered by Nigeria did not exist in sufficient number or severity to cause military intervention. It was concluded that, if one sees the conditions mentioned in the hypothesis as independent variables in a great number and severity in an African country, there is a high probability of military intervention in politics.

ADA 043725 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)