This thesis examines predictions journalists made during the Gulf War, to include whether or not force would be used, and, if so, how. Predictions that might have caused security violations were examined, as was the military's use of the media to further deception plans. Content analysis was also used to determine whether or not sociological trends could be vectored using an analytical approach. In an age of continuing friction between the military and the media, this study takes a unique approach in looking at a different aspect of the relationship; how, in retrospect reporters may have helped or hurt the effort through predictions they made. Content analysis in this study worked. Trends toward the actual events that occurred were evident for the breakdown of diplomacy, the conduct of an air campaign, and a ground assault. The technique might prove to be useful for application to find trends in ongoing events. The study concludes that journalists as a group correctly predicted events. I found one article that could have posed security problems for U.S. and coalition forces, but numerous articles supporting the deception story existed.

ADA 259717 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)