This study maintains strategic surprise occurred in two instances during the 1991 Persian Gulf War. First, Saddam's invasion of Kuwait took the United States, and most of the world, by surprise. Next, the U.S. led coalition attacks strategically surprised Saddam and his forces. By claiming strategic surprise took place during the Gulf crisis, this study contradicts Clausewitz and modern U.S. military doctrine. These sources both state strategic surprise rarely occurs due to the large size of armies. Yet, despite the large forces involved in the Gulf War, strategic surprise did occur. As this study shows, strategic surprise occurred in the Gulf crisis due to cognitive dissonance. This condition causes an individual's mind to become out of tune with reality. During the Gulf War, cognitive dissonance tended to make decision makers on both sides of the conflict discount warning signs which indicated their respective strategic plans were not working. By discounting these warning signs, Gulf War leaders failed to reassess their plans and make required adjustments. This failure created an environment in which strategic surprise occurred.

ADA 273933 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)