This study examines the FYs 1990-1992 Lieutenant Colonel Promotion Selection Board results to identify and rank-order predictors associated with selection and nonselection of armor majors for promotion to lieutenant colonel. The study revealed 13 predictors associated with selection and 10 predictors associated with nonselection to lieutenant colonel that met the .05 level of significance. These predictors were based on sanitized officer record brief data for the majors considered in the primary zone. The study compares the predictors with established Army policy contained in DA PAM 600-3, and the Secretary of the Army's "Selection Board Instructions" in force during FYs 1990-1992. The study found that the board results complied with Army policy in force during this period. This study also found that service as an operations officer (S3) or executive officer (XO) and a MEL 4 (military education level) education are requirements for promotion to lieutenant colonel. However, since promotion boards are not required to strictly follow the requirements in DA PAM 600-3, the study recommends that it be used as a vehicle to honestly articulate selection board requirements to officers in the field.

ADA 272881 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)