The emergence of the People's Republic of China as a significant economic and military power demands an assessment of the likely objectives of future Chinese foreign policy. Will China use its growing economic and military development as a tool for regional hegemony or for stability and cooperation? Are China's benign statements of its foreign policy objectives credible? This thesis argues that Chinese foreign policy since 1949 has consistently attempted to operate within the framework of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence as articulated by the Chinese during the 1954 Bandung Conference. The study first examines the various approaches and opposing points of view taken by contemporary political scientists and historians, and then offers a historical case study approach to assessing Chinese foreign policy interests. It adopts a realist approach to assessing Chinese motives in conflicts since 1949. With this information the study identifies consistent patterns of Chinese strategic thought regarding its interests, foreign relations, deception, and conflict. The study concludes that there exists no evidence of a deliberate Chinese policy of aggression and that there exists little reason to anticipate such developments in the near future, provided antagonisms based on misperception and miscalculation can be controlled. Based on the conclusions from analysis of the cited case studies, this study also posits implications for the management of future crisis involving China.

ADA 367738 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)