By 1997, total DoD outlays are projected to decline by more than 30 percent in real terms from their 1987 levels. The DoD procurement outlays during the same period are expected to decrease by nearly 46 percent. It has been estimated that as many as 1 million private sector jobs in addition to approximately 800,000 DoD jobs may be affected by these planned reductions. The impact of DoD reductions and the accompanying indirect and induced employment reductions has caused serious concern in localities that could be adversely affected. The Logistics Management Institute (LMI) has applied a methodology to estimate the job losses associated with defense reductions and has applied that methodology to U.S. metropolitan areas and nonmetropolitan counties. LMI's analysis shows that although the vast majority of communities with DoD-related activity are not significantly dependent on that activity, 72 metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas have been identified where there is a high dependency on defense spending. Further, the methodology could be refined and serve as the basis for a tiered monitoring strategy that could be applied to vulnerable localities.

"February 1993." "LMI report DC201R6." "This paper was prepared as input to the Defense Conversion Commission in the preparation of its December 1992 report, Àdjusting to the Drawdown'."