This report describes the Army's conventional munitions acquisition process from the generation of the estimate of the requirements for munitions to the decisions on what mix of munitions will actually be funded. Particular emphasis is placed on the description of the models used by the U.S. Army Concepts Analysis Agency to estimate the conventional munitions war reserve resupply requirements, which represent the bulk of the total requirement. The author describes the models used to simulate a theater conflict and the methodology used to combine the results of the models. He also makes several suggestions for improving the requirements estimation and procurement processes. The author recommends that the current procurement process be altered to analyze investment options other than larger stockpiles to respond to the variability and/or uncertainty associated with the wartime demand for munitions. He also suggests a structure for a measure that stresses the critical early stages of a conflict and allows munitions planners to quantify their preferences for the mix of munitions to be produced. Keywords: Air Force procurement, Munitions industry.

"July 1989." "Prepared for the Office of the Assistant Secretay [sic] of Defense for Production and Logistics."