"The question of how Donald Trump won the 2016 election looms over his presidency. In particular, were the 78,000 voters who gave him an Electoral College victory affected by the Russian trolls and hackers? Trump had denied it. So too has Vladimir Putin. Others cast the answer as unknowable. Drawing on path-breaking work in which she and her colleagues isolated significant communications effects in the 2000 and 2008 presidential campaigns, the eminent political communication scholar Kathleen Hall Jamieson marshals the troll posts, unique polling data, analyses of how the press used the hacked content, and a synthesis of half a century of media effects research to argue that, although not certain, it is probable that the Russians helped elect the 45th president of the United States. In the process, Cyberwar tackles questions that include: How extensive was the troll messaging? What characteristics of the social media platforms did the Russians exploit? Why did the mainstream press rush the hacked content into the citizenry's newsfeeds? Was Clinton telling the truth when she alleged that the debate moderators distorted what she said in the leaked speeches? Did the Russian influence extend beyond social media and news to alter the behavior of FBI director James Comey? After detailing the ways in which the Russian efforts were abetted by the press, social media platforms, the candidates, party leaders, and a polarized public, Cyberwar closes with a warning: the country is ill-prepared to prevent a sequel" -- Provided by publisher.

Introduction : US susceptibilities, troll and hacker synchronies, and my suppositions -- Who did it, why, and what research says about how it might matter. How do we know that Russian spies and saboteurs (aka hackers and trolls) intervened in the 2016 presidential election? ; A theory of communication that posits effects -- The prerequisites of troll influence. The first troll prerequisite : widespread messaging ; The second troll prerequisite : messages aligned with Trump's electoral interests ; The third troll prerequisite : mobilizing veterans, white Christians, demobilizing blacks and Sander's supporters, and shifting liberals to Stein ; The fourth troll prerequisite : persuasive appeals ; The fifth troll prerequisite : well-targeted content -- How the Russians affected the news and debate agendas in the last month of the campaign. The effect of Russian hacking on press coverage ; The effect of hacked content on the last two presidential debates ; The Russian effect on the media agenda in the last days of the election -- What we don't, can't, and do know about how Russian hackers and trolls helped elect Donald J. Trump. Afterword : Where does this leave us? -- Appendices : Evaluations of Clinton and Trump traits in October -- Appendix one : Changes in perceptions of Clinton and Trump in October -- Appendix two : Debate 2 and debate 3 exposure effect on candidate trait evaluations -- Appendix three : Association between perception changes and vote intentions -- Appendix four : Effect of traits on vote intention.