China's approach to nuclear deterrence has been broadly consistent since its first test in 1964, but it has recently accelerated nuclear force modernization. China's strategic environment is likely to grow more complex, and nuclear constituencies are gaining a larger bureaucratic voice. Beijing is unlikely to change official nuclear policies but will probably increase emphasis on nuclear deterrence and may adjust the definition of key concepts.

"RAND Project Air Force." "Prepared for the United States Air Force."

China's evolving nuclear deterrent : introduction -- Baseline : China's evolving strategic nuclear concepts -- China's nuclear force structure -- China's view of the global security environment -- Chinese views of U.S. nuclear forces and policy -- Nested security dilemmas and China's view of other (non-U.S.) nuclear powers -- Internal drivers : political leadership and bureaucracy -- Material resources and constraints -- Outputs : potential developments in China's nuclear future -- Contigent futures -- China's accelerating nuclear modernization : implications.