"Taiwan faces one of the most difficult air defense problems in the world. Because of that, it cannot easily look to how other nations have invested in air defenses to guide its force structure decisions. What makes Taiwan's air defense problem so difficult is the combination of its proximity to China and the massive investments that the People's Republic of China has made in a range of systems that threaten Taiwan's aircraft. China's fighter aircraft capabilities have surpassed those of Taiwan in the air. Furthermore, China now has the capability to destroy all of Taiwan's aircraft at their bases. Thus, Taiwan needs to rethink how it can accomplish its air defense goals. Fighter aircraft are not the only element of Taiwan's air defense; surface-to-air missiles are the other major element. This report analyzes how Taiwan might approach air defense, by downsizing and shifting its fighter aircraft force to focus on coercive scenarios, increasing its investment in surface-to-air missiles, and dedicating its surface-based air defense to becoming an enduring warfighting capability able to contribute throughout the duration of a sustained and effective defense of Taiwan. It describes the essential air defense problem posed by the People's Liberation Army, characterizes the current capabilities and level of funding that Taiwan invests in air defense, and then develop several alternative investment strategies. The authors then test those investment strategies in three vignettes that span the range of conflict, from quite limited coercive uses of force to a full invasion"--Publisher's description.

"RR-1051-OSD"--Cover page 4. "National Security Research Division."

Ch. 1. Introduction and the Threat Environment : The Air Threat -- Attacking Taiwan's Integrated Air Defense Systems : The Feasibility of a Knockout Punch -- Organization of the Report ; ch. 2. Force Structure : Projected Cost of the Existing Force -- Future Force Structure Options ; ch. 3. Vignettes and Analytic Results : Vignette 1 : Air Sovereignty -- Vignette 2 : Disarming Strikes -- Vignette 3 : Invasion Air Defense -- Demands for Defenses in Sequential Vignettes -- Concluding Thoughts on the Vignettes ; ch. 4. Implications : Sizing the Surface-to-Air Missile Force -- Sizing the Fighter Force ; APPENDIXES : A. Cost Estimation Methods -- B. Approaches to Vignette Analysis -- C. Other Air Defense Systems Considered -- D. Results of Other Forces Examined in the Air Sovereignty Vignette -- References.