The U.S. Air Force is facing a number of challenges as a result of the current defense budget downturn along with the uncertainty of its timing and magnitude. RAND examined the challenge of modernizing the Air Force's aircraft fleet while trying to sustain the industrial base with limited funding. Complicating this challenge is that the pattern of Air Force spending has shifted dramatically away from new aircraft procurement, and a competitor with significant technical and economic capability has emerged. There is a need for careful strategic management of investment choices -- and this goes beyond just aircraft. The Air Force will first need to define its capability priorities that fit within budget constraints, then use those priorities to shape a budget strategy. RAND considered six budget strategies for aircraft procurement: from a new high-tech fleet to sustaining and modifying the existing one. Each strategy under a constrained spending future results in challenges and issues for the industrial base. The Air Force will need to help mitigate industrial base problems that result from their chosen budget strategy -- but some issues may be beyond their control. There are lessons from foreign acquisitions that the Air Force can leverage to avoid pitfalls. Most importantly, shortfalls in both industry and government skill bases can cause significant problems later during execution. Finding ways to sustain key skills during a spending downturn will be important for the future and potentially produce longer-term savings.

How is the current situation different from the downturn in the mid-1980s? -- What can we learn from prior industrial base assessments to inform decisions for the future? -- What are the investment options for aircraft acquisition? How might they affect the industrial base? -- Options and potential issues.