The essence of an information attack is to alter, either by intrusion into and manipulation of a database or by deception, the scenario under which a target mind or organization evaluates and selects future courses of action. The aim is to influence the actions of the target. The method is alteration of the perceived desirability or expected payoff of specific courses of action. This alteration of the information in possession of the target can be described as alteration of the perceived reality under which the target operates. Probable success by an attacker in altering the target's perceived behavior, given a successful manipulation of the target's information, has, in the past, been subjective. A modeling protocol based on the use of game theory is proposed that may, in certain cases, allow optimization of the scenario, or reality, imposed on the target to force the choice of a desired course of action. It should also allow a quantitative estimate of the likelihood of the target's adopting a given course of action. This tool can be used to estimate friendly susceptibility to information attack.

Final rept. Jan-Nov 97.