Enduring sources of conflict in the Persian Gulf Region : predicting shocks to the system /Geoffrey Kemp and Janice Gross Stein -- Ethnic conflict and state building in the Arab World / Saad Eddin Ibrahim -- Assessing alternative future arrangements for regional security / Ghassan Salamé -- Alternative futures for Iran : implications for regional security / Shaul Bakhash -- Iran's national security : threats and interests / Shahram Chubin -- The future of Iraq and of regional security / Charles Tripp -- Of not being a lone wolf : geography, domestic plays, and Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East / Soli Özel -- Conflict in the Gulf : views from the GCC / Abdel Monem Said Aly and Hassan Saleh -- Addressing the Kurdish issue / David McDowall -- Sources of conflict in the Middle East : the Kurds / Barham A. Salih -- Weapons of mass destruction and advanced delivery systems in the Middle East / Marvin M. Miller -- Sources of potential conflict in the Persian Gulf : the water factor / Thomas Naff -- Security arrangement in the Persian Gulf / William B. Quandt -- Arms sales and arms embargoes in the Persian Gulf : the real dilemmas of dual containment / Thomas L. McNaugher -- Regional security in the Persian Gulf : obstacles and options / Richard K. Herrmann.