This Paper examines new initiatives to curb the unacknowledged nuclear weapon arsenals of the emerging nuclear powers and keep their activities from triggering still greater proliferation. National, regional and multilateral measures are also identified and evaluated in terms of their effectiveness in dealing with the regional consequences and global spillovers of more widespread proliferation. With proliferation already well under way in the Middle East and South Asia, these issues can no longer be avoided. They will become even more pressing if current efforts fail to buttress traditional non-proliferation institutions and win a long-term extension of the NPT in 1995.

Cover title. "Winter 1991." Adelphi Paper 263 PDF is available via the Library's subscription to Infomaworld: www.informaworld.com

Introduction--I. A world of more nuclear-armed nations--The new nuclear powers--New nuclear forces--A more hostile global security environment--Prospects for nuclear proliferation--II. Building proliferation fire-breaks--Buttressing tradtional institutions--Capping unacknowledged nuclear arsenals--Breaking regional proliferation chains--III. Avoiding regional nuclear war--Lessening the technical 'propensity to war'--Strengthening regional security structures--Limiting the risks--IV. Containing proliferation's global spillovers--Military intervention against new nuclear powers--Homeland defences: where, whether or when?--Confrontation and concert among the great powers--Conclusions--Beyond traditional nuclear non-proliferation.