The U.S. President and nearly all his critics agree that the spread of nuclear weapons and the possibility of their seizure and potential use is the greatest danger facing the United States and the world. Looking at the way government and industry officials downplay the risks of civilian nuclear technology and materials being diverted to make bombs, one would get almost the opposite impression. In fact, most governments have made the promotion of nuclear power's growth and global development a top priority. Throughout, they have insisted that the dangers of nuclear weapons proliferation are manageable either by making future nuclear plants more "proliferation-resistant" or by strengthening International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards and acquiring more timely intelligence on proliferators. How sound is this view? How useful might civilian nuclear programs be for states that want to get nuclear weapons quickly? Are current International Atomic Energy Agency nuclear safeguards sufficient to block military nuclear diversions from civilian programs? Are there easy fixes to upgrade these controls? How much can we count on more timely intelligence on proliferators to stem the further spread of nuclear weapons? This volume taps the insights and analyses of 13 top security and nuclear experts to get the answers. What emerges is a comprehensive counternarrative to the prevailing wisdom and a series of innovative reforms to tighten existing nuclear nonproliferation controls. For any official, analyst, or party concerned about the spread of nuclear technology, this book is essential reading.

"June 2014." Cover title. Format not distributed to depository libraries.

Introduction : nuclear energy's security story / Henry Sokolski -- Part I. Nuclear proliferation matters. Nuclear proliferation : looking back, thinking ahead : how bad would the further spread of nuclear weapons be? / Franc̦ois Heisbourg -- The history of proliferation optimism : does it have a future? / Matthew Kroenig -- Preventive war and the spread of nuclear programs / Matthe Fuhrmann -- Part II. Nuclear power, nuclear weapons : clarifying the links. Nuclear power, nuclear weapons : clarifying the links / Victor Gilinsky -- Scoping intangible proliferation related to peaceful nuclear programs : tracking nuclear proliferation within a commercial nuclear power program / Susan Voss -- Persuading countries to forgo nuclear fuel-making : what history suggests / Richard S. Cleary -- Centrifuges : a new era for nuclear proliferation / R. Scott Kemp -- Part III. How well can we safeguard the peaceful atom? How well will the International Atomic Energy Agency be able to safeguard more nuclear materials in more states? / Patrick S. Roberts -- International Atomic Energy Agency inspections in perspective / Olli Heinonen -- Looking beyond Iran and North Korea for safeguarding the foundations of nuclear nonproliferation / Pierre Goldschmidt -- Part IV. Ignoring nuclear weapons proliferation intelligence. Casting a blind eye : Kissinger and Nixon finesse Israel's bomb / Victor Gilinsky -- The 1979 South Atlantic Flash : the case for an Israeli nuclear test / Leonard Weiss -- The nonuse and abuse of nuclear proliferation intelligence in the cases of North Korea and Iran / Robert Zarate -- Facing the reality of Iran as a de facto nuclear state / Gregory S. Jones -- Part V. Serious rules for nuclear nonproliferation. Serious rules for nuclear power without proliferation / Henry Sokolski and Victor Gilinsky.