Chinese future war and future air war theorists consider offensive-mindedness and power projection an absolute necessity for survival in a changing world environment. Although China's theories for future warfare are well beyond the technological grasp of the current day PLAAF, the Chinese suggest ideas or theories represent the 'invisible force' where advanced technological equipment meets advanced military thinking. This monograph evaluates China's power projection modernization efforts through a look at PRC future warfare theory, organizational restructuring and acquisitions against the three USAF 21st century categories for success: technological advances, streamlined combat organizations, and skilled leaders and personnel. China is experiencing a period of transition toward a more open, conciliatory power in the Asian-Pacific region. Internal disputes in the Xinjiang-Uighur region have been mitigated through crafty diplomatic and economic gestures with the five neighboring states, establishing a mutual agreement to punish terrorists, eliminate cross-border excursions and forge joint financial ventures. On-going disputes over the one China policy in relation to Taiwan have subsided with U.S. diplomatic efforts, military demonstrations and stronger Chinese-Taiwanese economic ties. The Chinese no longer resort exclusively to military force to resolve internal conflicts. The conditions exist for a conflict in the Asian-Pacific region, however, the emphasis on building a stronger economy minimizes the likelihood of a Chinese offensive strike against neighboring countries or an offensive strike against Chinese territory or interests. China's 1997 National Defense Policy publication presented the five principles of peaceful coexistence for the conduct of foreign, economic, and military policy. The central principle remained that of maintaining sovereignty over Mainland territorial interests and peripheral geographical and economic interests. Future warfare theorists formulated several schools of thought to modernize the military forces to meet the expectations identified in the National Defense White Paper. Since 1993, President Jiang Zemin supported the Local War school and their ideas have remained the most influential in the modernization effort. The Local War school focuses on rapid reaction forces, power projection, and quick decisive war. Assessments consider the Chinese defense-industrial complex incapable of providing the technology base required for China to compete against technologically superior Western powers and partners in the Asian-Pacific region. To overcome this technology infrastructure shortfall, China has engaged in targeted purchases of hardware, components, and software through civil and military channels. Although the numbers of aircraft systems and technology acquisitions appear meager, the internal capability for adaptability and incorporation of foreign technology into future Chinese weapon systems remains a significant force multiplier. The PLAAF through strategy, doctrine, structure, personnel, and systems are modernizing for the 21st century. The PRC provided the national defense strategy for preparing for local, modern high-technology warfare and all indicators suggests the PLAAF is methodically achieving State objectives. Time is on the side of the PRC, to expand economic markets and reinvest the capital into technological improvements for dual civil-military usage. U.S. interaction with the PRC should be focused, coordinated, and prudent. Although a credible threat is not present, the PLAAF has all the required building blocks for a power projection force in the Asian-Pacific region and should be monitored. A NSC China Working Group might provide a strategic level nodal analysis of the diplomatic, informational, military, and economic options that protect US. vital interests.

ADA 389834 Approved for public release; Distribution is unlimited. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student-authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to these studies should include the foregoing statement.)